The European Union (EU) is a partnership of 27 states, with a further 8 countries currently hoping to join. As a customs union, members of this trade bloc take advantage of free trade, free movement of people and goods, and investment from EU funds. However, the EU is not just about economics, it is also heavily tied up in European security.
EU membership is very important to Ukraine. From 2013-14, 25,000 protested, and 108 civilians were killed, during demonstrations on Maidan Square against then president Yanukovych’s refusal to sign a planned association agreement with the EU. The pro Russian president forfeited a trade deal with Europe for a trade deal with Putin.
However, a decade later, with Russian bombs falling on Ukrainian cities, Ukraine joining the EU is more important than ever. As of the 21st June 2024, the EU agreed to start membership negotiations with Ukraine. Although this is good news, unfortunately Ukraine will not become an EU member overnight. The following article will explore two of the major barriers in the way of Ukraine becoming a member of the EU: security and agricultural price competition.
“What impact would Ukraine joining the EU have on European security?” EU citizens were asked. An average of 45% said Ukraine’s membership would undermine Europe’s security.
With Russia’s full scale war still raging in Ukraine, it is no surprise that security is the issue destined to raise the most eyebrows in response to the question of Ukraine’s accession. With the EU being set up for the very purpose of European security through the Maastricht treaty after World War Two, the implications of Article 42.7 must not be overlooked.
Article 42.7 commits EU countries to aid member states “by all means in their power” if they come under attack. Invoked only once after the terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015, the EU has only ever really focused on low-intensity crisis management- never in its history has it intervened in a full scale war, like the one Ukraine is fighting in. This is in large part because the EU has previously been able to outsource the issue of defence to NATO, and therefore, to the United States. This creates obvious problems for Ukraine. NATO membership is off the cards, at least until after the war ends and there is a high likelihood of the US ceasing to support Ukraine if Trump is inaugurated into office later this year. As such, the EU risks not meeting its full security obligations to Ukraine. This concern has also left room for those, like Hungarian leader Victor Orban, who is certainly not anti-Russian, to argue that Ukraine’s accession into the EU should be postponed until after the war; a delay Ukraine desperately wants to avoid.
Another issue of Ukraine’s accession is increased agricultural competition within the EU. With its epithet – “the breadbasket of Europe” – paradoxically, Ukraine’s incredibly fertile black soils are one of the top reasons why it should be emitted into the EU, and at the same time, one of the major reasons why some argue Ukraine should not be. When Ukraine joins the EU, it will become part of a single market, so it can trade with no tariffs or quotas, likely leading Ukraine to increase its agricultural production due to lower costs and member states favouring Ukrainian grain imports over other more expensive member states’ imports. Some member states stand to hugely gain from from this- Spain is an example. Spain, who in 2021, bought 430,000 tonnes of sunflower oil from Ukraine, will likely welcome these lower prices. However, Slovak, Hungarian and Polish farmers, with tougher competition with rival Ukrainian farmers, stand to lose. Some Poles are already blaming food imported from Ukraine via EU solidarity lanes for lowering the prices of cereals- and their protests are bound to get louder as Ukraine edges closer to securing EU membership.
Additionally, currently EU farmers receive at least €200 in income support annually per hectare farmed. Half of Ukraine’s land is arable, compared to only a quarter of the current EU’s. Some estimates suggest that this makes Ukraine eligible for up to €96.5bn in agricultural payments under the bloc’s Common Agriculture Policy over 7 years. Also, as the poorest country in Europe, with a per capita GNI of £2,824 (and this was pre-war, in 2020), having to dip into the EU’s Cohesion Fund to invest in rail, roads, and environmental projects to even out living standards between member states, could cost the EU upwards of €61bn. This is on top of inevitable defence spending and post-war recovery spending demands.
Ultimately, Ukraine has certainly proven itself worthy of EU membership through its resilience over the last 2 years, as it continues to fight in a war that the Kremlin expected to be over in just 4 days. Ukraine is continuing to defend the European values of freedom and democracy, and so, in many eyes, there is no question over whether Ukraine deserves EU membership. However, issues surrounding security and increased competition within the bloc will likely continue to be topics of contention in EU membership talks.